Bulgaria seeks to boost birth rate to stem population slump

January 16, 2006 - 0:0
SOFIA (AFP) -- Bulgaria risks losing a third of its 7.6 million population by the year 2050 and is seeking to employ urgent measures to boost the birth rate.

The Balkan country's government made encouraging births a national priority after a recent report by the Academy of Sciences predicted that Bulgaria's population would fall from eight million in 2001 to seven million in 2020, and drop to between 5.5 and 4.5 million by 2050.

The tendency was confirmed in a recent report by the U.S. Population Reference Bureau, which forecast Bulgaria's population would dwindle 34 percent by 2050. This would be the largest population slump in the whole of Europe and among the worst in among the 212 countries monitored by the Bureau.

Apart from a falling birth rate, the report showed Bulgaria's population is progressively ageing: youngsters under 15 are now making up only 14 percent of the population, while elders aged 65 or more have shot up to over 17 percent.

"The demographic crisis is a national security problem. It concerns the quality of the workforce... The official statistical data paints an alarming picture compared to that in the rest of Europe," President Georgy Parvanov warned recently.

The National Security Council met last week for a discussion on the issue that involved members of the government, different parliamentary groups and demography experts.

The alarming population perspectives prompted the council to call for immediate measures to boost the birth rate.

For the first time since the fall of communism, the Bulgarian authorities are taking a close look at population trends. They have proposed measures "to slow down the decline in population, encourage births and improve the quality of the workforce".

The council recommended that the government provide aid to families who have a second child, housing assistance for newly-wed couples, and even better jobs.

Bulgaria also vowed to combat its child mortality rate -- which stands at 13.3 per thousand or three times the rate in European Union countries -- by providing better health care to women.

"The birth rate is extremely low -- a ratio of 1.2 to 1.3 children for each woman of childbearing age, compared to between 1.7 and 1.9 in France and the Scandinavian countries," said Tatyana Kotseva, director of the Academy of Science's centre for demographic studies.

Only 72,751 children were born in 2005, compared to 112,289 in 1989, the last year.

"The focus has to be on the quality of reproduction," Kotseva added. "Half the Roma minority, which is responsible for 13 percent of new births, is illiterate or has only primary school education and this is increasing in younger generations.

"The problem of Roma births is a problem of poor education and poor health. After the fall of communism, the state completely abandoned control over the demographic processes," Kotseva said.

According to a study by the Assa-M sociology institute, Bulgaria's 700,000-strong Roma population is reproducing four times more quickly than the rest of the population.

This means "an accelerated growth of a population group that is marginalized, largely unemployed and reluctant to find a job", Assa-M reported.

But boosting births and improving Romas' quality of life are not the only way to remedy the country's population problems.

Expert estimate that between 700,000 and one million Bulgarians have emigrated since 1989 and are urging the government to find ways to encourage these people to come back.